Psychology Prediction Essay Example for Free

psychological science Prediction EssayAccording to one of my favorite philosophers, Yogi Berra, Its hard to predict, especially the future. Hes mightily exactly it doesnt stop many pot from trying. In fact predicting the future is all-important(a) to many aspects of our lives in business, and beyond. Many professionals permit the need to stain slightly predict outcomes of the future to be prospered in their jobs. And many have occupations where predicting the future actually is their job, one way or another. As an analyst at Gartner, I am of course a good example of this. slightly of this is common sense. Some is controversial. Some goes completely against what most think and against what people are taught even at organizations who train people to do predictive type jobs. But it works for me.Here are my ten guiding principles for accurate prediction1.Care about being right. This sounds obvious but circumstances and other requirements often get in the way. Professionals whose job involves making predictions face pressures to have an opinion, no matter what, and to generate visibility. This pile lead to chop-chop formed opinions and overstating and over hyping things. While these things may in fact need to be part of a strategy, they do not have to be the primary polish. Tempering such behavior by placing the goal of being right at a higher priority is one of the real keys to accurate prediction. You cant be afraid to be wrong, but you cant place being right at lower priority and expect to be good at predicting.2.Be an innumerate. Be passing skeptical of any numbers. Many believe that numbers dont lie. They dont of course, but people do. And they state the numbers that they want to state to crystalise their case. And they get things confused. Numbers are more useful in looking back at story than in predicting (looking back at history is helpful and numbers can help). Be especially wary of survey data. Often the questions are peaked(predicate ) formed and the respondents not necessarily knowledgeable. There is no substitute for talking directly to people to make sure that you understand context and that they understand the question. And follow-up is possible.3.Ask yourself Why are they telling me this? Understand the motivations of sources of data. eitherone you jibe has some type of agenda. Sometimes it is truly to educate you, usually not. It is critical to understand what the source of information wants you to think to put the information into context.4.Ask yourself What would I do? Put yourself in the shoes of the CEO or key decision maker of the entity if possible. This is a key tool to predicting how companies and organizations will behave. If the prediction is about that company, this is the major key. If it is more general, putting yourself in the shoes of multiples and playing out scenarios is helpful.5.Recognize that most of the time, you will know less than your sources. The world is full of specialists. D epending on circumstance, you may know as much as your sources but thither is almost always someone who is more of an expert than you. So you need to develop strategies for assessing the credibility and honestness of a source. A useful tactic is to lead a discussion towards an area in which you do know a lot and test the sources honesty and credibility. This can help set what weight to give the source6.Dont jump to conclusions. Whenever possible take your time. When pushed for an opinion, it is best to say if I had to have an opinion I would lean towards x, but not highlight these types of things as predictions.7.Find bubbles, formulaic thinking and poke at assumptions. Try to understand why most people have a certain belief and figure out what assumptions they have. Look for misunderstandings, confusion, motivations and social trends.8.Get information youre not vatic to have. Basic networking is essential to knowing your subject and to getting information youre not supposed to have (Obviously those subject to insider trading types of issues need to tread carefully here). Listen for slip ups. Put the pieces together. Fill in the holes. Speculate.9.Youre only paranoid if youre wrong. Explore conspiracy theories. While they usually wont be the prediction, the exercise of examining possible conspiracy theories often is fruitful. Remember At the very least(prenominal) there is bound to be some aspect of the theory that has some truth to it and may acid the way towards a good prediction. However, it is far more likely that stupidity or laziness, rather than conspiracy, is the cause.10.Constantly test, bear out and refine. Every chance you get to talk to a person whose opinion you respect, test new theories. Every chance you talk to a source of information, test your theories and gauge their reactions. Be open to tweaks.